Do home sales slow down around elections? What 14 years of Phoenix area data show

Nov 3

Your vision, your home, our expertise.

Every election season we hear the same question from buyers and sellers: should we wait until it is over? The idea that the housing market freezes around elections gets repeated a lot, so we went to the data. We looked at national research and then pulled 14 years of Maricopa County contract data from the MLS to see whether election years actually look different here. Today is Election Day for the 2026 midterms, which makes this a good moment to check.

The short answer There is a small, short dip, not a freeze. In Maricopa County, contracts on homes that went on to close fell an average of 10.9% from October to November in the four presidential election years since 2012, compared with 8.2% in the other ten years. Every year saw a November drop, so most of it is the normal holiday slowdown. The fall as a whole was not weaker in presidential years, and midterm years showed no extra dip at all.

What national research says

Academic research: political scientists Brandice Canes-Wrone and Jee-Kwang Park found that the uncertainty around elections leads some people to delay big, hard to reverse purchases like homes, with declines before elections that depend on how close the race is and how far apart the parties are on policy (British Journal of Political Science, 2014).
Sales the year after: home sales rose in the year after nine of the last 11 presidential elections, based on HUD and NAR data cited by NAR in October 2024.
Election years vs other years: John Burns Research and Consulting looked at 35 years of data and found the usual sales slowdown in the five months before November was no worse in election years than in other years (HousingWire, August 2024).
The 2024 example: Redfin reported that its homebuyer demand index jumped more than 15% in the days after the November 2024 election and that purchase mortgage rate locks more than doubled from a month earlier, a sign that some buyers had been waiting (November 14, 2024).

What 14 years of local contracts show

National numbers blend very different markets, so we ran the test on our own market. We counted Maricopa County residential listings by the month they went under contract, counting only contracts that went on to close, for every year from 2012 through 2025. Here is how November compared with October each year:

2012 (presidential): 11.5% fewer contracts in November than in October
2013 (no federal election): 8.7% fewer contracts in November than in October
2014 (midterm): 9.5% fewer contracts in November than in October
2015 (no federal election): 11.0% fewer contracts in November than in October
2016 (presidential): 9.9% fewer contracts in November than in October
2017 (no federal election): 6.5% fewer contracts in November than in October
2018 (midterm): 7.7% fewer contracts in November than in October
2019 (no federal election): 9.6% fewer contracts in November than in October
2020 (presidential): 12.3% fewer contracts in November than in October
2021 (no federal election): 7.5% fewer contracts in November than in October
2022 (midterm): 5.2% fewer contracts in November than in October
2023 (no federal election): 6.7% fewer contracts in November than in October
2024 (presidential): 10.0% fewer contracts in November than in October
2025 (no federal election): 10.1% fewer contracts in November than in October

Three things stand out:

November always slows down. Contracts fell from October to November in all 14 years. In years with no presidential election the drop ranged from 5.2% to 11.0%. That is the holiday season at work, not politics.
Presidential years dip a bit more. The four presidential Novembers fell 11.5%, 9.9%, 12.3%, and 10.0%, an average of 10.9%, about 2.7 points deeper than the 8.2% average in other years. All four sit in the deeper half of the normal range, but 2015, with no election at all, fell 11.0%, more than 2016 or 2024.
The fall as a whole held up. Combining October and November and comparing them with July and August, contracts were 4.4% lower in presidential years and 10.8% lower in other years. December also slipped less after presidential Novembers (11.6% vs 14.1%), which fits the idea that a few buyers simply wait a few weeks.

What about sellers listing homes?

New listings tell the same story. Across all 14 years, new listings fell sharply from October to November, by an average of 19.7% in presidential years and 19.9% in other years. In other words, sellers did not hold back any more in election years than they always do heading into the holidays.

For 2026 so far, 7,532 homes were listed in Maricopa County in October, compared with 7,838 in October 2025, about 3.9% fewer. September was up, with 7,593 new listings versus 7,211 a year earlier. That is a normal amount of month to month movement, not a pre-election pullback.

Midterms barely register

In the three midterm years in our data, 2014, 2018, and 2022, November contracts fell an average of 7.5% from October, less than in years with no federal election. The fall of 2022 was weak overall, but that lines up with mortgage rates climbing quickly that year, not with the midterms.

What this means if you are buying or selling now

Buyers: a few weeks around a presidential election can bring slightly less competition, but the effect is small. Rates, inventory, and the right home matter much more than the election calendar.
Sellers: the late fall slowdown is real every year, election or not. If you list in November or December, price against recent closed sales and expect a smaller, more serious pool of buyers.
Everyone: if your plans depend on a specific policy outcome, such as tax or lending rules, talk with your tax advisor or lender. That is a planning question, not a market timing one.

The honest caveats

Four presidential elections is a small sample, so the extra November dip of about 2.7 points could be partly chance. Our contract counts include only contracts that went on to close, so they leave out deals that fell apart. The years include very different markets, from the 2020 and 2021 boom to the rate shock of 2022, and those swings are much bigger than anything tied to elections. Correlation is not cause: November also brings Thanksgiving, shorter days, and year end budgets.

Frequently asked questions

Do home sales slow down during election season?

A little, and only briefly. In Maricopa County from 2012 through 2025, contracts that went on to close fell an average of 10.9% from October to November in presidential election years, compared with 8.2% in other years. Every year in that span saw a November drop, so most of the dip is the normal holiday season, and the extra election effect is small.

Do home prices fall in election years?

Not as a rule. National data reported by NAR shows home prices rose in the year after every recent presidential election except the one that followed 2008, when prices fell during the financial crisis. Interest rates, inventory, and the local economy explain far more of the price picture than the election calendar.

Should I wait until after the election to buy or sell a home?

For most people the election is not a strong reason to wait. The November dip in local contracts has been short and has not carried into a weaker fall overall: October and November contracts combined held up better against July and August in presidential years (4.4% lower) than in other years (10.8% lower). Your own timeline, financing, and the homes available matter more.

Do midterm elections affect the housing market?

Our local data shows no midterm effect. In 2014, 2018, and 2022, Maricopa County contracts fell an average of 7.5% from October to November, a smaller drop than in years with no federal election. The weak fall of 2022 lines up with the jump in mortgage rates that year rather than the election.

How did you measure this?

We counted Maricopa County residential listings in the ARMLS database by the month they went under contract, for listings that later closed, plus new listings by the month they were listed, for July through December of each year from 2012 through 2025. We then compared month to month changes in presidential, midterm, and off years. All calculations were done by Arizona Luxury Partners on November 3, 2026.

The bottom line

The election slowdown is mostly a myth with a grain of truth. In the Phoenix area, November contracts drop every year, and they have dropped a little more in presidential years, but the effect is small, short, and has not dragged down the fall market as a whole. Midterms, including today's, have shown no measurable effect. If you are ready to buy or sell, the election is not a reason to sit out.

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Kyle Hermann
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Cheryl Solano
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Arizona Luxury Partners | Real Estate Group at RE/MAX Fine Properties

Sources

ARMLS via Flexmls, Maricopa County residential listings (PropertyType A): listings by contract month for listings that later closed, and new listings by listing month, July through December, 2012 through 2025, plus new listings for September and October 2026. Pulled and calculated by Arizona Luxury Partners on November 3, 2026.
Brandice Canes-Wrone and Jee-Kwang Park, "Elections, Uncertainty and Irreversible Investment," British Journal of Political Science, vol. 44, no. 1, January 2014. Link
National Association of Realtors, "Do Elections Affect the Housing Market? Here's What Experts Say," reprinted from The Motley Fool, October 29, 2024 (HUD and NAR data on sales after elections). Link
HousingWire, "Political uncertainty has no historical impact on home sales: John Burns," August 1, 2024. Link
Redfin, "Home Tours, Mortgage Locks Are Bouncing Back Post-Election," November 14, 2024. Link

All information provided is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed and should be independently verified. This article is for general information only and is not financial, lending, legal, or tax advice. Arizona Luxury Partners | Real Estate Group at RE/MAX Fine Properties, 21020 N. Pima Road, Scottsdale, AZ 85255. Brokerage License LC629808000. Equal Housing Opportunity.

Kyle Hermann