Metro Phoenix home sales fell 17.9% in October: what it means in Phoenix

PhoenixMarket Insights
Written by Kyle Hermann

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Closed home sales across metro Phoenix fell 17.9% in October 2026 compared with October 2025, according to Phoenix REALTORS data published November 13. Pending sales, the contracts that turn into next month's closings, fell 45.9%. Prices barely moved. For anyone buying or selling a home in Phoenix this winter, that combination matters more than the headline.

The short answer October was a slow month for sales but not for prices. Metro Phoenix closings fell 17.9% and pending sales fell 45.9% from a year earlier, while the city of Phoenix median single-family price held flat at $485,000 for the year through October. More homes on the market and a falling affordability index point to a market leaning toward buyers. Arizona Luxury Partners is a real estate brokerage, not a mortgage lender. The rates here are published national averages, not a quote or an offer. Talk with a licensed lender about your own rate and options.

What the data says

  • Metro closed sales: down 17.9% in October 2026 from October 2025, but up 0.8% year to date through October (Phoenix REALTORS via AZ Big Media, November 13, 2026)
  • Metro pending sales: down 45.9% in October and down 4% year to date; new listings down 9% for the month and 2.2% year to date (Phoenix REALTORS, October 2026)
  • Metro median price: $480,000 year to date, flat with 2025, and down 1% from October 2025 (Phoenix REALTORS, October 2026)
  • Metro inventory: 23,044 single-family homes, up 10.6% from a year earlier; supply up to 4.6 months from 4.1 (Phoenix REALTORS, October 2026)
  • City of Phoenix: single-family sales down 0.1% year to date, pending sales down 5.4%, median flat at $485,000, days to sell 65 versus 66 (Phoenix REALTORS, January to October 2026)
  • Redfin, Phoenix: median sale price $449,687, down 0.07% year over year; median 59 days on market versus 63 (Redfin, three months ending October 2026)
  • Our Phoenix page: 12,930 sales at a $440,000 median over 12 months, 4,562 listings, about 4.2 months of supply, 67% listing success rate (ARMLS via Flexmls, November 12, 2025 to November 12, 2026)

What changed in October, and why

Phoenix REALTORS, the board that tracks metro single-family sales, said October was hit by a mix of interest rates, economic uncertainty, and the run up to the November election. Its board president also noted that more choice only helps buyers who can qualify for a loan. That point shows up in the affordability index, which fell from 76 to 70 for the first 10 months of the year. In plain terms, the median household now earns about 70% of the income needed to qualify for a median priced home.

Meanwhile, supply kept building. Inventory rose 10.6% from a year earlier, and months of supply climbed to 4.6. Even so, sellers received about 98% of list price, roughly where that measure has been for two years. Buyers are not getting deep discounts on homes that are priced right. They are getting more time, more choice, and more room to ask for repairs or credits.

Phoenix REALTORS named the election as one factor, and our earlier post on 14 years of Phoenix area data looked at how contract activity tends to move around election years (linked below). Whether the October gap closes in November is the number to watch.

Phoenix is many markets, not one

The city of Phoenix covers a lot of ground, and the averages hide big differences. See where North and Central Phoenix sit on our Northeast Valley map. Here is how seven ZIP codes compare, using the ARMLS figures on each ZIP page of our site as of November 11, 2026, over the past 12 months:

Listing success rate is the share of listings that left the market and closed, rather than being cancelled or expiring. A ZIP code like 85028, with 2.5 months of supply and a 76% success rate, still behaves like a seller's market. The higher priced 85018 and 85016 areas, at 5.0 and 5.6 months, give buyers noticeably more leverage. For citywide numbers and the 10 year price history, see Phoenix homes for sale and North Phoenix homes for sale, or compare other cities on our market insights page.

What to do with this

If you are buying

  • Use the extra time. With supply above four months in most of the city, you can usually see a home twice and get inspections done without rushing.
  • Ask about price history. Our Phoenix figures show homes closing at 98.67% of final list price but 96.61% of original list price, a gap that shows how often prices were cut before a sale.
  • Get a lender preapproval before you shop. Affordability, not inventory, is the main constraint right now. Arizona Luxury Partners is a real estate brokerage, not a mortgage lender. The rates here are published national averages, not a quote or an offer. Talk with a licensed lender about your own rate and options.

If you are selling

  • Price against current competition in your ZIP code, not against last spring. Supply in 85016 is about 2.2 times that in 85028.
  • Expect requests for credits or repairs, and decide your limits before the first offer arrives.
  • Plan for the calendar. If November pending sales stay weak, homes listed in December may face fewer active buyers.

Avoid this mistake: reading one month as a trend. A 45.9% drop in pending sales sounds alarming, but prices held, sellers still got about 98% of list, and year to date closings were up. Base your decision on your own ZIP code and price range, and look at two or three months of data together.

The honest caveats

  • The sources measure different things. Phoenix REALTORS reports single-family homes for the metro and for the city. Redfin uses a three month window and includes all home types. Our site counts single-family homes, condos, townhomes, and patio homes with a Phoenix address over 12 months. That is why the medians range from $440,000 to $485,000.
  • Monthly pending counts can be revised as late data comes in, and October 2026 is a single month.
  • Smaller ZIP codes like 85054, with 208 sales in 12 months, can swing quickly when a handful of homes list or sell.
  • Results vary widely by price point and neighborhood, even inside one ZIP code.

Frequently asked questions

Did home prices drop in Phoenix in October 2026?

Not by much. Phoenix REALTORS reported the metro median single-family price down 1% from October 2025, and the city of Phoenix median flat at $485,000 for the first 10 months of the year. Redfin put the Phoenix median at $449,687 for the three months ending October 2026, down 0.07% from a year earlier.

Why did metro Phoenix home sales fall in October 2026?

Phoenix REALTORS pointed to interest rates, economic concerns, and the run up to the election as the main reasons October was a tough month. Year to date, closed sales were still up 0.8% through October, so the drop was concentrated in one month.

Is Phoenix a buyer's market right now?

It is close to balanced and leaning toward buyers. Metro supply rose to 4.6 months in October 2026 from 4.1 a year earlier, per Phoenix REALTORS, and the city of Phoenix sat at about 4.2 months as of November 12, 2026, per ARMLS figures on our site. Supply varies a lot by ZIP code, from about 2.5 to 5.6 months in the North and Central Phoenix ZIP codes we compared.

How many homes are for sale in metro Phoenix?

Phoenix REALTORS counted 23,044 single-family homes in inventory in October 2026, up 10.6% from October 2025. Within the city of Phoenix, our site showed 4,562 homes, condos, and townhomes listed as of November 12, 2026.

How long does it take to sell a home in Phoenix?

In the city of Phoenix, the number of days to sell a single-family home was 65 for the first 10 months of 2026, down from 66 a year earlier, per Phoenix REALTORS. Redfin reported a median of 59 days for the three months ending October, and ARMLS figures on our site show a 49 day median over the past 12 months. Each source measures differently, so compare like with like.

What does a 45.9% drop in pending sales mean?

Pending sales are homes that went under contract, so they hint at closings over the next month or two. Phoenix REALTORS reported metro pending sales down 45.9% in October 2026 from October 2025. One month can be noisy and pending counts can change as data is updated, so watch November and December before reading it as a trend.

Are Phoenix sellers getting their asking price?

Mostly close to it. Phoenix REALTORS said sellers received about 98% of list price, roughly where it has been for two years. ARMLS figures on our site show Phoenix homes closing at a median of 98.67% of final list price but 96.61% of original list price over the past 12 months, which shows the cost of price cuts.

What is the Phoenix affordability index?

It compares the median household income with the income needed to qualify for a median priced home. Phoenix REALTORS reported the metro index fell from 76 to 70 through October 2026 compared with the same 10 months of 2025, meaning the median household earns about 70% of what that home requires.

Which Phoenix ZIP codes have the tightest supply?

Among the North and Central Phoenix ZIP codes we compared, 85028 had the least supply at 2.5 months and 85016 the most at 5.6 months, based on ARMLS figures on our site as of November 11, 2026. Supply can shift quickly in smaller ZIP codes, so check the current numbers before you decide.

Should I wait to buy or sell in Phoenix?

That depends on your timeline, finances, and the specific home, not on one month of data. Buyers have more choice and room to negotiate than a year ago, while sellers who price well still sell near list. Talk with a licensed lender about financing and with a local agent about your neighborhood before deciding.

The bottom line

October 2026 was a slow month for Phoenix home sales and a steady one for prices. Buyers have more choice and more time than a year ago, and sellers who price to their ZIP code still close near list. The next two months of pending sales will show whether October was a pause or the start of a slower winter.

Read more: Do home sales slow down around elections? What 14 years of Phoenix area data show · Selling a home in Phoenix: why the first 30 days matter, by ZIP code

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Your advisors

Kyle Hermann
Associate Broker | Realtor®
602.814.7266
kyle@azluxurypartners.com
License BR665419000
Meet Kyle

Cheryl Solano
CRS® | Realtor®
480.518.0181
cheryl@azluxurypartners.com
License SA541911000
Meet Cheryl

Art Buck
Associate Broker | Realtor® | CCIM
480.510.7689
art@azluxurypartners.com
License BR014102000
Meet Art

Arizona Luxury Partners | Real Estate Group at RE/MAX Fine Properties

Sources

  • Phoenix REALTORS October 2026 results, reported in AZ Big Media, “Metro Phoenix home sales drop in October, flattening year-to-date uptick,” November 13, 2026. Link
  • Redfin, Phoenix housing market, three months ending October 2026, viewed November 13, 2026. Link
  • Arizona Luxury Partners, Phoenix homes for sale, ARMLS via Flexmls, November 12, 2025 to November 12, 2026. Link
  • Supply ratio calculated by Arizona Luxury Partners: 5.6 months (85016) divided by 2.5 months (85028) = 2.24. Link
  • Arizona Luxury Partners ZIP pages for 85018, 85016, 85028, 85050, 85054, 85022, and 85032, ARMLS via Flexmls, 12 months to November 11, 2026. Link

All information provided is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed and should be independently verified. This article is for general information only and is not financial, lending, legal, or tax advice. Arizona Luxury Partners | Real Estate Group at RE/MAX Fine Properties, 21020 N. Pima Road, Scottsdale, AZ 85255. Brokerage License LC629808000. Equal Housing Opportunity.

Kyle Hermann
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