Cave Creek and Carefree golf communities: where listings sell and where they stall

Nov 4

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Dove Valley Ranch, a Cave Creek golf community built around a public Robert Trent Jones Jr. course, sold 76% of the listings that left the market over the past 12 months. In Carefree as a whole, that figure was 61%. Listing success rate is one of the most useful numbers for buyers and sellers in golf communities, because it shows how often a listing ends in a closing instead of a cancellation. Here is how the five golf communities in Cave Creek and Carefree compare, using the figures on our own community pages.

The short answer

Among Cave Creek and Carefree golf communities with meaningful sales volume, Dove Valley Ranch had the highest listing success rate at 76%, with The Boulders and Tatum Ranch at 72%, all above Carefree's 61% and Cave Creek's 68%. Desert Forest showed 100% and Rancho Mañana 60%, but each rests on 5 or fewer listings, so treat those as small samples.

What the data says

Dove Valley Ranch: 76% listing success rate, 54 sold and 17 cancelled or expired, median $625,000, 51 median days on market (site community page, 12 months ending Nov 2, 2026)
The Boulders: 72% listing success rate, 44 sold and 17 cancelled or expired, median $1,452,500, 68.5 median days on market (site community page, 12 months ending Oct 31, 2026)
Tatum Ranch: 72% listing success rate, 146 sold and 57 cancelled or expired, median $626,500, 57 median days on market (site community page, 12 months ending Nov 2, 2026)
Desert Forest: 100% listing success rate, 5 sold and 0 cancelled or expired, median $1,258,000, 102 median days on market (site community page, 12 months ending Nov 2, 2026)
Rancho Mañana: 60% listing success rate, 3 sold and 2 cancelled or expired, median $560,000, 82 median days on market (site community page, 12 months ending Nov 2, 2026)
Cave Creek and Carefree overall: 68% in Cave Creek (621 sold) and 61% in Carefree (131 sold) (site city pages, 12 months ending Nov 4, 2026)

Community by community

Dove Valley Ranch

Dove Valley Ranch homes for sale sit around an 18 hole Robert Trent Jones Jr. course that opened in 1998 and is open to public play, with a Cave Creek address in ZIP 85331. Homes here sold at a median of 98.06% of final list price and 97.12% of original list price, so most sellers who priced well did not have to cut much. With 19 homes for sale and about 4.2 months of supply on November 2, the page described the market as close to balanced. One detail stands out: the median list price of current listings was $720,000, well above the $625,000 median sale price of the past year. That gap is worth watching if those listings sit.

Tatum Ranch

Tatum Ranch homes for sale make up the largest golf community market in the area, with 146 closed sales in 12 months. The private Tatum Ranch Golf Club has an 18 hole Robert Cupp course, a pool, a fitness center, and clubhouse dining, according to the community page. Sale prices ranged from $222,500 to $1,250,000, so this is a mix of condos, patio homes, townhomes, and mostly single family homes. Sellers paid buyer costs in 52% of sales, with a median concession of $9,600, well above the 33% share for Cave Creek as a whole. Even so, homes sold at a median of 98.3% of final list price.

The Boulders

The Boulders homes for sale straddle the Scottsdale and Carefree border, set among granite boulder formations and two Jay Morrish courses, North and South, with resort and member play. It is the highest priced community in this group, with 86% of sales at $1 million or more. The story here is pricing: homes sold at a median of 96.4% of final list price but only 93.6% of original list price, and 17 listings were cancelled or expired. The 13 homes for sale on October 31 had a median list price of $1,999,000, about $546,500 above the past year's median sale price (calculated by Arizona Luxury Partners).

Desert Forest

Desert Forest homes for sale surround the private Desert Forest Golf Club, a Red Lawrence course that opened in 1962, with a median lot of about 41,800 square feet. Every listing that left the market in the past year sold, but there were only 5 of them. Those 5 took a median of 102 days and closed at 90.57% of original list price, so patience and price adjustments were part of the picture even with a perfect success rate.

Rancho Mañana

Rancho Mañana homes for sale sit along a public 18 hole course in Cave Creek. Three homes sold and two listings came off the market unsold, for a 60% rate, and no homes were listed on November 2. With numbers this small, one sale either way changes the rate a lot.

What it means and why

Zoom out and the two towns look different. The Cave Creek homes for sale page showed a 68% success rate, a $870,000 median, and 57 median days on market. The Carefree homes for sale page showed 61%, a $1,125,000 median, and 86 days. The ZIP pages tell the same story: homes for sale in 85331 at 68% and homes for sale in 85377 at 61%, measured through November 3.

All three golf communities with meaningful sales volume beat their town's overall rate. One likely reason is that established golf communities have a steady record of comparable sales, which makes it easier for buyers and sellers to agree on value. Higher price points take longer and leave more room for a gap between asking price and what buyers will pay, which shows up in Carefree's longer days on market and in The Boulders' original list to sale ratio.

See where each of these communities sits on our Northeast Valley map, or compare them side by side on our golf course communities map.

How to use these numbers

If you are selling

Price to the community's recent sales, not to the current list prices. In Dove Valley Ranch and The Boulders, today's median list price sits well above the past year's median sale price.
Expect a negotiation on buyer costs in Tatum Ranch and Dove Valley Ranch, where 52% and 37% of sales included a seller concession. Build it into your net sheet early.
Avoid this mistake: starting high and planning to cut later. Original list to sale ratios of 93.6% in The Boulders and 90.57% in Desert Forest show that reductions are common, and every week on market is visible to buyers.

If you are buying

Look at days on market for the specific listing against the community median. A Tatum Ranch home past 57 days or a Boulders home past 68.5 days may have more room to negotiate.
Ask the club directly about membership type, initiation fees, dues, and whether membership transfers with the home. Rules differ between the private clubs, the public courses, and The Boulders' resort and member model.
Use the golf course communities map to filter to Private clubs or Public courses, zoom to Carefree, Cave Creek and Fountain Hills, and tap a community to open its homes for sale page with live listings and 12 months of sales.

The honest caveats

Desert Forest and Rancho Mañana each had 5 or fewer outcomes in 12 months. Their rates are real but too small to treat as a trend.
The community pages were measured on slightly different dates, October 31 for The Boulders and November 2 for the others, and the city pages on November 4. The figures update continuously and will shift.
A listing that was cancelled and relisted counts as cancelled, which can pull a rate down even when the home later sold.
Medians hide a wide range. Tatum Ranch sales ran from $222,500 to $1,250,000, and a condo and a golf course estate are very different products.
These figures come from the MLS and may not include every private or off market sale.

Frequently asked questions

What is a listing success rate?

It is the share of listings that left the market over the past 12 months that closed instead of being cancelled or expiring. A rate of 72% means about 72 of every 100 listings that came off the market sold, and the rest were pulled or expired. A listing that was cancelled and then relisted counts as cancelled.

Which Cave Creek or Carefree golf community has the highest listing success rate?

On the site's community pages checked November 4, 2026, Desert Forest in Carefree showed 100%, but that rests on only 5 closed sales and no cancellations. Among communities with more volume, Dove Valley Ranch led at 76% on 54 sales, followed by The Boulders at 72% and Tatum Ranch at 72%.

How does Cave Creek compare with Carefree overall?

For the 12 months ending November 4, 2026, the Cave Creek city page showed a 68% listing success rate on 621 sales and a median of 57 days on market. The Carefree city page showed 61% on 131 sales and a median of 86 days on market. Carefree's median sale price was higher, at $1,125,000 versus $870,000 for Cave Creek.

Do golf community homes in Cave Creek sell faster than other Cave Creek homes?

Not across the board. Dove Valley Ranch had a median of 51 days on market and Tatum Ranch 57 days, close to the 57 day Cave Creek median. Rancho Mañana took a median of 82 days, though that figure comes from only 3 sales.

What is the median price of a home in The Boulders?

The Boulders page showed a median sale price of $1,452,500, or $497 per square foot, on 44 sales for the 12 months ending October 31, 2026. The median list price of the 13 homes for sale on that date was $1,999,000. The community sits on the Scottsdale and Carefree border.

Is Tatum Ranch in Cave Creek or Phoenix?

Tatum Ranch has a Cave Creek address. Its page showed 146 sales at a median of $626,500 for the 12 months ending November 2, 2026, with 49 homes for sale and about 4.0 months of supply. The Tatum Ranch Golf Club is a private club with an 18 hole Robert Cupp course, according to the community page.

Do I have to join the golf club to buy in these communities?

Rules differ by community and club, and they can change. Dove Valley Ranch and Rancho Mañana have public courses, Tatum Ranch and Desert Forest have private clubs, and The Boulders runs resort and member play. Confirm membership requirements, fees, and any transfer costs directly with the club before you write an offer.

Why do some listings in golf communities expire without selling?

The data shows how many listings came off the market without a sale, not why. Common reasons in any market include a list price above recent comparable sales, condition issues, or a seller who decides to wait. In The Boulders, homes sold at a median of 93.6% of their original list price, which suggests many sellers adjusted price along the way.

What does months of supply tell me in these communities?

Months of supply is the number of homes for sale today divided by the average number of sales per month over the past year. Tatum Ranch showed about 4.0 months, Dove Valley Ranch about 4.2, and The Boulders about 3.5, all described on their pages as close to balanced. Small communities can swing quickly when one or two homes list or sell.

How often do Cave Creek sellers pay buyer costs?

The Cave Creek city page showed that 33% of closed sales had a seller concession, with a median of $10,000 among those sales. The share varied by community: 67% of the 3 Rancho Mañana sales, 52% in Tatum Ranch, 37% in Dove Valley Ranch, 11% in The Boulders, and none of the 5 Desert Forest sales. Seller concessions are buyer costs paid by the seller, such as closing costs or a rate buydown.

The bottom line

Golf communities in Cave Creek and Carefree are mostly selling at or above their towns' overall success rates, but the pricing gap between current listings and recent sales in places like The Boulders and Dove Valley Ranch is the number to watch. Sellers who price to recent closings tend to sell; those who price to hope tend to show up in the cancelled column. Buyers who know a community's median days on market know when they have leverage.

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Your advisors

Kyle Hermann
Associate Broker | Realtor®
602.814.7266
kyle@azluxurypartners.com
License BR665419000
Meet Kyle

Cheryl Solano
CRS® | Realtor®
480.518.0181
cheryl@azluxurypartners.com
License SA541911000
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Art Buck
Associate Broker | Realtor® | CCIM
480.510.7689
art@azluxurypartners.com
License BR014102000
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Arizona Luxury Partners | Real Estate Group at RE/MAX Fine Properties

Sources

Arizona Luxury Partners, The Boulders, Desert Forest, Tatum Ranch, Dove Valley Ranch, and Rancho Mañana homes for sale pages, ARMLS via Flexmls, 12 months ending October 31 to November 2, 2026, accessed November 4, 2026. Link
Arizona Luxury Partners, Cave Creek and Carefree homes for sale pages, ARMLS via Flexmls, 12 months ending November 4, 2026. Link
Arizona Luxury Partners, Cave Creek 85331 and Carefree 85377 homes for sale pages, ARMLS via Flexmls, 12 months ending November 3, 2026. Link
Difference between The Boulders median list price and median sale price calculated by Arizona Luxury Partners: $1,999,000 minus $1,452,500 equals $546,500.
Arizona Luxury Partners, Golf course communities in Maricopa County, club access from the Stymie and GolfLink directories, accessed November 4, 2026. Link

All information provided is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed and should be independently verified. This article is for general information only and is not financial, lending, legal, or tax advice. Arizona Luxury Partners | Real Estate Group at RE/MAX Fine Properties, 21020 N. Pima Road, Scottsdale, AZ 85255. Brokerage License LC629808000. Equal Housing Opportunity.

Kyle Hermann