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The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate slipped to 7.18% as of November 5, 2026, according to Freddie Mac. That is the third weekly decline in a row. On a typical Scottsdale purchase, the change from last week is worth about $31 a month. The change from a year ago, when the average was 6.22%, is worth closer to $489 a month. Here is what the numbers mean at real Northeast Valley price points.
What the data says
- 30-year fixed, Freddie Mac: 7.18%, down from 7.24% the prior week and up from 6.22% a year earlier (Freddie Mac PMMS, as of November 5, 2026)
- 15-year fixed, Freddie Mac: 6.57%, down from 6.60% the prior week and up from 5.50% a year earlier (Freddie Mac PMMS, as of November 5, 2026)
- 30-year conforming, MBA: 7.30% contract rate with 0.75 points, down from 7.37% (MBA Weekly Applications Survey, week ending October 30, 2026)
- 30-year jumbo, MBA: 7.20% with 0.48 points, down from 7.28%, for balances above $832,750 (MBA, week ending October 30, 2026)
- Purchase applications, MBA: unadjusted Purchase Index down 4% for the week and 19% lower than the same week a year ago (MBA, week ending October 30, 2026)
- ARM share, MBA: 11.4% of applications, which MBA's chief economist described as the highest since September 2025 (MBA, week ending October 30, 2026)
Arizona Luxury Partners is a real estate brokerage, not a mortgage lender. The rates here are published national averages, not a quote or an offer. Talk with a licensed lender about your own rate and options.
Two different surveys, two different numbers. Freddie Mac's figure averages rates on applications submitted through its system from the prior Thursday through Wednesday. The MBA figures are average contract rates and points by loan type for its survey week. We list them side by side and do not combine them.
What 7.18% means at local price points
National averages are easier to judge when you attach them to real prices. The table below uses the 12 month median sale price shown on each of our area pages, assumes 20% down and a 30-year fixed loan, and compares principal and interest at this week's 7.18% average with the 6.22% average from a year ago. These are illustrations calculated by Arizona Luxury Partners, not payment quotes.
- Phoenix, $440,000 median: $352,000 loan, about $2,385 a month at 7.18% vs. $2,160 at 6.22%, a $224 difference (median from our Phoenix homes for sale page, as of November 6, 2026)
- North Phoenix, $620,000 median: $496,000 loan, about $3,360 vs. $3,044, a $316 difference (median from our North Phoenix homes for sale page, as of October 31, 2026)
- Fountain Hills, $725,000 median: $580,000 loan, about $3,929 vs. $3,560, a $369 difference (median from our Fountain Hills homes for sale page, as of November 6, 2026)
- Cave Creek, $870,000 median: $696,000 loan, about $4,715 vs. $4,272, a $443 difference (median from our Cave Creek homes for sale page, as of November 6, 2026)
- Scottsdale, $960,000 median: $768,000 loan, about $5,203 vs. $4,714, a $489 difference (median from our Scottsdale homes for sale page, as of November 6, 2026)
- Carefree, $1,125,000 median: $900,000 loan, above the conforming limit, about $6,097 vs. $5,524, a $573 difference (median from our Carefree homes for sale page, as of November 6, 2026)
- Scottsdale 85255, $1,500,000 median: $1,200,000 loan, about $8,129 vs. $7,365, a $764 difference (median from our homes for sale in 85255 page, as of November 4, 2026)
- Paradise Valley, $3,812,500 median: $3,050,000 loan, about $20,662 vs. $18,720, a $1,942 difference (median from our Paradise Valley homes for sale page, as of November 6, 2026)
Every one of these areas sits on our Northeast Valley map, from North and Central Phoenix out to Fountain Hills, Cave Creek, and Carefree. See where they sit relative to each other on our Northeast Valley map.
What it means for buying power
Another way to read rates is to start from a monthly budget. If you set aside $5,000 a month for principal and interest on a 30-year fixed loan, that supports a loan of about $738,000 at 7.18%. At last week's 7.24%, the same payment supported about $733,700, a gain of roughly $4,400 this week. At last year's 6.22%, it supported about $814,600, or about $76,600 more than today. At $8,000 a month, the year over year gap is about $122,500 in loan amount. All of these figures are calculated by Arizona Luxury Partners.
The takeaway: week to week moves of a few hundredths of a point barely change what you can afford. What matters more is the level of rates compared with your own budget, plus the price, taxes, insurance, and HOA dues of the specific home.
Why the loan size matters in the Northeast Valley
The MBA survey treats $832,750 as the 2026 conforming loan limit. With 20% down, any purchase above about $1,040,000 needs a loan above that limit. That covers the medians in Carefree, ZIP 85255, and Paradise Valley in the list above. In the MBA survey, jumbo balances averaged 7.20% with 0.48 points, slightly below conforming balances at 7.30% with 0.75 points. Lenders set their own jumbo terms, so the only number that counts is the one a licensed lender quotes you. For more local data by city, see our market insights by city.
Practical steps for buyers right now
- Set your payment first, then your price. Decide the full monthly payment you are comfortable with, including taxes, insurance, and HOA dues, and work backward to a price range.
- Get a written loan estimate from a licensed lender. Published averages are useful for context, but your rate depends on your credit, down payment, loan size, property type, and points.
- Compare points, not just rates. The MBA figures show points alongside rates for a reason. A lower rate with more points can cost more up front.
- Ask about HOA dues and special assessments early. In many Scottsdale, Fountain Hills, and North Phoenix communities, HOA dues add a meaningful amount to the monthly cost.
- Avoid this mistake: treating a national average as your rate. A buyer who budgets on 7.18% and then gets quoted higher can lose ground in a negotiation. Get your own numbers before you write an offer.
Practical steps for sellers
- Price for today's payments. Buyers shop by monthly cost. A year ago, the same Scottsdale median priced home cost about $489 less a month to finance, so pricing should reflect current rates, not last year's.
- Watch supply alongside rates. Scottsdale had about 4.4 months of supply as of November 6, 2026, according to our Scottsdale page, which is close to balanced. Inventory and days on market tell you more about your pricing room than a single rate move.
The honest caveats
- Freddie Mac and MBA rates are national averages. Arizona rates, and your rate, can differ.
- Our payment figures are principal and interest only. They leave out property taxes, homeowners insurance, HOA dues, mortgage insurance, and closing costs.
- Medians hide a wide range. A 12 month median sale price mixes condos, townhomes, and single family homes, and prices vary a great deal by community within each city.
- The area medians come from our own pages, calculated from ARMLS data via Flexmls, and their as-of dates differ slightly by page.
- We do not forecast rates. Weekly moves can reverse quickly.
Frequently asked questions
What is the average 30-year mortgage rate this week?
Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey put the 30-year fixed rate at an average of 7.18% as of November 5, 2026. That is down from 7.24% the week before and up from 6.22% a year earlier. It is a national average, not a quote, and your own rate depends on your credit, down payment, loan size, and lender.
Have mortgage rates gone down this fall?
Yes, modestly. Freddie Mac reported its third straight weekly decline as of November 5, 2026, and the MBA said rates in its survey for the week ending October 30 were at their lowest level since September 2026. The moves have been small, a few hundredths of a point per week.
How much does a 0.06 point rate drop change a monthly payment?
Not much on its own. On a $768,000 loan, roughly 20% down on Scottsdale's $960,000 median sale price, principal and interest falls by about $31 a month going from 7.24% to 7.18%, based on our calculation. The bigger number is the year over year change, which is about $489 a month on the same loan.
What is the monthly payment on a $1 million home at 7.18%?
With 20% down, the loan is $800,000. At 7.18% on a 30-year fixed loan, principal and interest comes to about $5,419 a month, calculated by Arizona Luxury Partners. Property taxes, homeowners insurance, and any HOA dues are extra.
What is a jumbo loan?
A loan balance above $832,750, the 2026 conforming limit the MBA uses in its survey, is usually called a jumbo loan. In that survey for the week ending October 30, 2026, the average jumbo 30-year rate was 7.20% with 0.48 points, compared with 7.30% and 0.75 points for conforming balances. Lenders price jumbo loans their own way, so ask a licensed lender how it applies to you.
Why are the Freddie Mac and MBA rates different?
They measure different things. Freddie Mac's PMMS averages rates from loan applications submitted through its system over the prior Thursday to Wednesday, while the MBA survey reports average contract rates and points by loan type for its survey week. Neither one should be blended with the other, and neither is a rate you are guaranteed.
Does a lower rate mean home prices will go up in Scottsdale?
Not automatically. Prices depend on supply, demand, and local conditions as well as rates. Scottsdale had about 4.4 months of supply as of November 6, 2026, which the site's Scottsdale page describes as close to balanced, so watch inventory and days on market along with rates.
Should I wait for rates to fall further before buying?
No one can tell you where rates will go, and we do not predict them. A practical approach is to set a payment you are comfortable with at today's rates, get a written estimate from a licensed lender, and decide based on the home and your timeline. If rates drop later, talk with your lender about what refinancing would cost.
What costs are not included in a principal and interest estimate?
Property taxes, homeowners insurance, HOA dues, any mortgage insurance, and closing costs are not included. In Arizona, property taxes vary by city and school district, and HOA dues vary widely by community. Ask your lender for a full estimate of the monthly payment and cash to close.
Is Arizona Luxury Partners a mortgage lender?
No. Arizona Luxury Partners is a real estate brokerage, not a mortgage lender. The rates here are published national averages, not a quote or an offer. Talk with a licensed lender about your own rate and options.
The bottom line
Rates have edged down three weeks in a row to a 7.18% average, but they remain well above last year's 6.22%. At Northeast Valley prices, that year over year gap is worth a few hundred dollars a month for most buyers and much more at the high end. Use the averages for context, get your own numbers from a licensed lender, and judge each home on its full monthly cost.
Read more: Financing a Paradise Valley home: jumbo loans, the $832,750 limit, and current rates · Do home sales slow down around elections? What 14 years of Phoenix area data show
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Kyle Hermann
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Cheryl Solano
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Art Buck
Associate Broker | Realtor® | CCIM
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Arizona Luxury Partners | Real Estate Group at RE/MAX Fine Properties
Sources
- Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey, U.S. weekly averages as of November 5, 2026. Link
- Mortgage Bankers Association, Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey, week ending October 30, 2026 (released November 4, 2026). Link
- Arizona Luxury Partners, Scottsdale, Fountain Hills, Cave Creek, Carefree, Phoenix, and Paradise Valley homes for sale pages, 12 month median sale prices as of November 6, 2026 (ARMLS via Flexmls). Link
- Arizona Luxury Partners, North Phoenix homes for sale page, as of October 31, 2026, and Scottsdale 85255 homes for sale page, as of November 4, 2026 (ARMLS via Flexmls). Link
- Monthly principal and interest and loan amounts calculated by Arizona Luxury Partners: 30-year fixed, 20% down, rates of 7.18%, 7.24%, and 6.22% (Freddie Mac PMMS), area median sale prices above; buying power figures solve for the loan amount at $3,000, $5,000, and $8,000 monthly principal and interest; 20% down threshold above the $832,750 conforming limit is $832,750 divided by 0.8.
All information provided is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed and should be independently verified. This article is for general information only and is not financial, lending, legal, or tax advice. Arizona Luxury Partners | Real Estate Group at RE/MAX Fine Properties, 21020 N. Pima Road, Scottsdale, AZ 85255. Brokerage License LC629808000. Equal Housing Opportunity.
