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Every major housing forecaster updated its outlook in October, and the message was close to unanimous: mortgage rates are expected to stay above 7% into 2027, and national home prices are expected to stay roughly flat. Fannie Mae now expects 2027 rates to average 7.5%, up from 6.7% a month earlier. Here is what the experts are saying, where they disagree, and how it lines up with what is selling in Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Phoenix, Fountain Hills, Cave Creek, and Carefree.
What the experts are saying
- Fannie Mae, 30-year rate: 7.5% average in 2027, up from 6.7% in its September forecast (Fannie Mae ESR Housing Forecast, October 12, 2026, as reported by mortgage.news and Florida Realtors)
- Fannie Mae, home prices: 0.6% national price growth in 2027, down from 1% (same forecast, as reported by Florida Realtors, October 16, 2026)
- Fannie Mae, home sales: 4.71 million total sales in 2027, down from 4.88 million, and 4.06 million existing home sales, down from 4.22 million (same forecast)
- MBA, 30-year rate: about 7.3% in the fourth quarter of 2026, staying above 7% through 2027 (MBA October 2026 forecast, as reported by BAM, October 13, 2026)
- Zillow, home values: typical U.S. home value up 0.7% for 2026, to $362,100, with inventory up 6.6% year over year in the fourth quarter (Zillow Research, October 23, 2026)
- NAR, sales and prices: existing home sales and prices up about 2% or less in 2026, new home sales down 5% (Lawrence Yun, as reported by Yahoo Finance, October 28, 2026)
- Where rates are now: 30-year fixed average 7.18%, the third straight weekly decline (Freddie Mac PMMS, November 5, 2026)
Where the forecasts agree, and where they do not
On rates, the range is narrow. The MBA sees about 7.3% at the end of 2026, and Fannie Mae sees 7.5% across 2027. Both now assume higher rates for longer than they did in September. The MBA's October forecast also builds in a Federal Reserve rate hike in December 2026 and another in the first quarter of 2027, and puts recession odds at about 35% over the next 12 months. Redfin wrote on November 2, 2026 that a December hike looked more likely than not, even as mortgage rates had eased about 30 to 40 basis points from their late September peak.
On prices, the forecasts cluster near zero. Fannie Mae's 0.6% for 2027 and Zillow's 0.7% for 2026 are close. NAR's latest read, about 2% or less for 2026, is a bit higher. Nobody in this group is forecasting a national price drop of any size, and nobody is forecasting a rebound.
On sales, the story is revision. Fannie Mae cut its 2027 total sales forecast by 170,000 homes in a single month, and NAR's 2026 sales outlook has fallen from a 14% gain at the start of the year to about 2% or less. When forecasts move that much in a few months, the range matters more than any single number.
How the Northeast Valley looks against the forecasts
National forecasts average together very different markets. Here is where local supply and pricing stood this week, based on 12 months of closed sales on our homes-for-sale pages (ARMLS via Flexmls, calculated by Arizona Luxury Partners):
- Scottsdale homes for sale: 6,592 sales at a median $960,000, about 4.4 months of supply, homes closing at a median 97.3% of final list price (as of November 6, 2026).
- Paradise Valley homes for sale: 412 sales at a median $3,812,500, about 6.6 months of supply, 96% of final list price (November 6).
- Phoenix homes for sale: 12,945 sales at a median $440,000, about 4.2 months of supply (November 6), and North Phoenix homes for sale: 2,434 sales at a median $620,000, about 3.5 months (October 31).
- Fountain Hills homes for sale: 672 sales at a median $725,000, about 5.1 months of supply (November 6).
- Cave Creek homes for sale: 623 sales at a median $870,000, about 4.6 months, and Carefree homes for sale: 131 sales at a median $1,125,000, about 4.3 months with a median 86 days on market (November 6).
- North Scottsdale ZIPs split: homes for sale in 85255 had 1,216 sales at a median $1,500,000 and about 3.5 months of supply, while homes for sale in 85262 had 578 sales at a median $1,600,000 and about 6.0 months (November 4).
Most of the area sits in the balanced band. The places with more supply are at the top of the price range, where a 7% rate on a jumbo loan changes the monthly math the most. To see how these cities and ZIP codes sit next to each other, open our Northeast Valley map and zoom to North Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, or Cave Creek and Carefree.
What it means for buyers and sellers
If you are buying
- Plan around today's rate, not a forecast. The forecasters themselves expect rates to stay above 7%, so build your budget on the rate a licensed lender quotes you now.
- Use local supply to judge negotiating room. In Paradise Valley and 85262, with about 6 months of supply, buyers often have more room on price and terms than in 85255 or North Phoenix.
- Get fully underwritten before you shop. In a slower market, a clean, ready offer still stands out.
- Avoid this mistake: waiting for a national price drop that no major forecaster is calling for. If you find the right home at a fair price, a forecast is a weak reason to pass.
If you are selling
- Price to the last 90 days of nearby sales, not to a forecast or a peak. With flat national price expectations, the market is not expected to catch up to an overpriced list.
- Watch months of supply in your price band. A home at $3 million in a market with 6 months of supply competes very differently from one at $700,000 with 4 months.
- Prepare for buyer requests. With rates above 7%, many buyers ask for repairs or help with closing costs, so decide your limits before you list.
The honest caveats
Every forecast above is national. None of the sources reviewed here published a forecast specific to Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, or the Phoenix metro, so do not read a 0.6% national figure as a prediction for any one neighborhood. Forecasts also change often: Fannie Mae, the MBA, and NAR all revised their numbers meaningfully within the past few months, and the next updates could move again. Our local figures are 12 month medians across all property types, so they blend condos with estates and do not show what any single home is worth. Smaller markets like Carefree, with 131 sales, can swing more from month to month. Fannie Mae's October numbers here come from news coverage of its October 12, 2026 forecast, since the original report could not be opened this run.
Frequently asked questions
What do experts predict for home prices in 2027?
Fannie Mae's October 12, 2026 forecast calls for national home price growth of 0.6% in 2027, down from 1% in its September forecast. Zillow's October 23, 2026 forecast expects typical home values to finish 2026 up 0.7%. Both point to roughly flat national prices, not a crash and not a surge.
What are mortgage rates expected to be in 2027?
Fannie Mae's October 2026 forecast puts the 30-year fixed rate at an average of 7.5% in 2027. The MBA's October 2026 forecast expects rates near 7.3% in the fourth quarter of 2026 and above 7% through 2027. Forecasts change often, and Arizona Luxury Partners is a real estate brokerage, not a mortgage lender, so talk with a licensed lender about your own rate.
Will home sales pick up in 2027?
Not much, according to Fannie Mae. Its October 2026 forecast expects 4.71 million total home sales in 2027, down from 4.88 million in its September forecast, which works out to growth of about 0.9% over 2026. NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun has also trimmed his outlook, now expecting existing home sales in 2026 to be up about 2% or less.
Is the Phoenix area housing market going to crash?
None of the forecasts reviewed here call for a crash. National forecasts from Fannie Mae and Zillow show small price gains, and local supply in most Northeast Valley cities sits in the balanced range of about 3.5 to 5 months. Forecasts are not guarantees, and conditions can shift if the economy changes.
Why did Fannie Mae raise its mortgage rate forecast?
Fannie Mae's October 2026 forecast raised its 2027 rate assumption from 6.7% to 7.5%, reflecting higher rates at the time the forecast was built. The MBA's October forecast also assumes a Federal Reserve rate hike in December 2026 and another in early 2027. Either assumption can change as new inflation and jobs data come in.
Have mortgage rates come down since September?
Yes, somewhat. Freddie Mac's survey showed the 30-year fixed average at 7.18% as of November 5, 2026, its third straight weekly decline. Redfin wrote on November 2, 2026 that rates had fallen about 30 to 40 basis points from their late September peak.
Is Paradise Valley a buyer's market right now?
By supply, it leans that way. As of November 6, 2026, Paradise Valley had about 6.6 months of supply, with homes closing at a median of 96% of their final list price over the past 12 months, based on ARMLS data. Supply varies a lot by price range and street, so look at the specific homes you are considering.
Should I wait until 2027 to buy a home?
The forecasts reviewed here do not show a clear payoff from waiting, since they expect rates above 7% and roughly flat prices. That is general information, not advice for your situation. Your timing depends on your plans, your finances, and the specific homes available, so talk it through with a lender and an advisor.
Should I sell my home now or wait for 2027?
Forecasters expect only small national price gains in 2027, so waiting is not projected to add much value on its own. What matters more is local supply in your price range and how your home compares to the competition. A current pricing review of nearby sales is a better guide than a national forecast.
How accurate are housing market forecasts?
Forecasts are often revised, sometimes sharply. NAR began 2026 expecting existing home sales to rise 14%, then cut that to 4% by June and to about 2% or less by late October. Treat forecasts as a range of informed guesses, and lean on current local data when making a decision.
The bottom line
The experts agree on the broad shape of 2027: rates above 7%, flat national prices, and sales that barely grow. That is a slow market, not a falling one. In the Northeast Valley, most cities are balanced, and the higher price tiers give buyers more room. Make your decision on local supply, today's rate quote, and the specific home, and treat forecasts as context.
Read more: Mortgage rates fall to 7.18%: what it means for Northeast Valley payments · Paradise Valley home prices: 10 years of sales and where the market stands now
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Sources
- mortgage.news, Fannie Mae's October Outlook Cuts 2027 Home Sales and Origination Forecasts, October 15, 2026 (Fannie Mae ESR Housing Forecast dated October 12, 2026). Link
- Florida Realtors, Fannie Mae raises 2027 mortgage rate forecast, October 16, 2026. Link
- MBA October 2026 forecast, as reported by BAM, Mortgage Rates Above 7% Through 2027, According to MBA's Latest Forecast, October 13, 2026. Link
- Zillow Research, The Rate Path Wildcard (October 2026 Housing Market Forecast), October 23, 2026. Link
- Yahoo Finance, US home sales growth forecast for 2026 falls from 14% to 2% or less as mortgage rates top 7%, October 28, 2026. Link
- RealEstateNews.com, NAR revises down home sale, mortgage rate forecasts, June 16, 2026. Link
- Redfin, Mortgage Rates Drop From September Highs as Midterms and Jobs Data Loom, November 2, 2026. Link
- Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey, as of November 5, 2026. Link
- Arizona Luxury Partners city and ZIP homes-for-sale pages (Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Phoenix, Fountain Hills, Cave Creek, Carefree as of November 6, 2026; North Phoenix as of October 31, 2026; 85255 and 85262 as of November 4, 2026), ARMLS via Flexmls, 12 months of closed sales. Link
- Change in Fannie Mae's 2027 total home sales forecast calculated by Arizona Luxury Partners: 4.88 million (September forecast) minus 4.71 million (October forecast) equals 170,000.
All information provided is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed and should be independently verified. This article is for general information only and is not financial, lending, legal, or tax advice. Arizona Luxury Partners | Real Estate Group at RE/MAX Fine Properties, 21020 N. Pima Road, Scottsdale, AZ 85255. Brokerage License LC629808000. Equal Housing Opportunity.
